Brent Dax (brentdax) wrote,
Brent Dax
brentdax

On the Marriage Amendment

A lot of people are worried about a proposed Constitutional amendment that would outlaw gay marriage.

My thinking: it will never pass.

The process for passing an amendment is simple and clear. First, the House and Senate must each pass it with a two-thirds vote; second, three-quarters of the state legislatures must pass it.

The Republicans control just over half of the Senate, and a similar ratio in the House. There is no way enough Democrats will defect to get it through Congress.

Even if they somehow do, the states are a much larger hurdle. Right now, states are split roughly 50/50. The likelihood that half of the Democratic legislatures will defect approaches epsilon.

So get pissed about it if you want, but keep this in mind: it won't matter, because it won't happen.
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