Brent Dax (brentdax) wrote,
Brent Dax

On the Marriage Amendment

A lot of people are worried about a proposed Constitutional amendment that would outlaw gay marriage.

My thinking: it will never pass.

The process for passing an amendment is simple and clear. First, the House and Senate must each pass it with a two-thirds vote; second, three-quarters of the state legislatures must pass it.

The Republicans control just over half of the Senate, and a similar ratio in the House. There is no way enough Democrats will defect to get it through Congress.

Even if they somehow do, the states are a much larger hurdle. Right now, states are split roughly 50/50. The likelihood that half of the Democratic legislatures will defect approaches epsilon.

So get pissed about it if you want, but keep this in mind: it won't matter, because it won't happen.
  • Post a new comment


    default userpic

    Your IP address will be recorded 

    When you submit the form an invisible reCAPTCHA check will be performed.
    You must follow the Privacy Policy and Google Terms of use.